Every choice you make forecloses the choices you didn’t make. The cost of doing X includes everything else you could have done…
Ethan
A pre-mortem asks: assuming this project failed, what went wrong? The question produces different answers than the optimistic ones we usually start…
Ethan
Bayes’ theorem sounds technical. The intuition behind it is not. Updating beliefs in proportion to evidence is the single most important practice…
Ethan
Expected value is the simplest tool for evaluating risky decisions. It is also the tool that, in practice, most people fail to…
Ethan
Most people misread probabilities in predictable ways. The errors are small at the level of a single number and consequential at the…
Ethan
Two variables that move together do not necessarily affect each other. This single distinction is responsible for a large fraction of statistical…
Ethan
A decision tree breaks a complex choice into a sequence of simpler ones. The simplest version uses pen and paper. The discipline…
Ethan
